After a pleasant-ish May and a below-average but reasonable June; July’s weather in the UK started out wet and continued that way – With low-pressure trough after cyclonic front piling into the islands and bringing precipitation after downpour – Added to which the developing lows running in from the Atlantic were sometimes so deep at the centre that the isobaric representations of them on weather maps were resemblant of something usually occurring from late October to April over the British Isles, with gale-force winds uprooting trees in places – We seem to now at last have a respite: Sunny skies and warm temperatures are forecast for the immediate future – Although a possibility of the odd heavy shower triggered by the heat is predicted towards the end of the week in the South.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/

Every subsequent raindrop began evoking memories for some of July 2007, where an entire month’s worth of rain fell in hours in a number of places in England, leading to flooding and massive property damage -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_floods

http://tinyurl.com/6jw4xd

- Not made any better by the inaction and unpreparedness of incompetent local authorities – Who were neither standing by for the forecast disaster nor able to cope with the aftermath. Hundreds of households, mainly in the Midlands, and upper Southern counties, watched in horror as roads turned into rivers and swathes of water, topsoil, vegetation, and raw sewage flowed through their properties.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/629/629/6911778.stm

England – July 2007 

So what of the rest of this year? Will the UK be basking in sub-tropical heat or swimming in torrents of mud?

I haven’t seen any predictions of expected weather trends as yet; but for what it’s worth; here’s my own long-range weather forecast based on the signs I see in nature:-

July will end with a warm and sunny climax in the South and Wales; although showers – Some heavy and thundery – will occur towards the end of the month. The North and Scotland will continue overcast with sunny periods and a Westerly breeze.

Early August will see the high pressure  system currently affecting southern parts building over Scotland and Northern France; bringing a south-easterly and settled air-stream to the entire UK: however another low-pressure from the Atlantic will threaten thundery periods of rain in the South.

As the high pressure system trundles north-easterly a second anticyclone will develop off Devon and build across the entire UK; bringing fine, sunny, settled conditions throughout the middle of August. Towards the last week of August and into September that anticyclonic area will fragment allowing another series of Atlantic lows to infiltrate the UK’s atmosphere – Bringing a return to unsettled conditions and longer periods of rain.

 
Picture taken near where I live in May 2008

Based on my forecast, (I can’t see much further than what I stated.) the message is to enjoy August – “Summer 2008 Part 2″ – as I feel a rather wet, although at times warm, September looms. (With possibly severe gales in October?)

How accurate or reliable is this forecast? Well I’m usually more right than wrong on this type of thing: It’s a combination of Witch’s intuition and female intuition. Nevertheless I could still be quite wrong: Keep your eye on the Met Office and BBC’s weather forecasts for more. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

Addendum 31.07.08

Well I got the July forecast right to a greater degree; but the signs have changed and I no longer expect August to be quite as summery as I’d expected. Overall I’m expecting a settled, sunny, and largely dry month with occasional short periods of rain or showers; but I can’t currently be any more informative than that I’m afraid, as I’ve become a little confused myself to be honest: There are signs in nature right now indicating both excellent and lousy weather, and it’s hard to know what to make of it.

I’m not and never was a trained meteorologist; I rely more on the “country girl” forecasting method. Maybe it could be a mixed bag of weather for August; or maybe the signs will change again in the next week or so? Who knows?

I won’t be updaing this particular article again; but if I notice anything marked I’ll return to the subject in anoher post.